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186,721 IDD and autism providers scored across 1,638 counties. Diagnosis rates rising. Provider supply structurally insufficient. Know which markets to enter before the platforms that won behavioral health and dental five years ago get here first.
IDD (Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities) and autism services represent the earliest-stage consolidation opportunity in PE healthcare. Unlike behavioral health or dental — where platforms have been building for a decade — IDD/autism is fragmented at a level that resembles where BH was in 2015. The platforms that move now will define the market.
The AcuiteIQ IDD/Autism Report scores 186,721 providers across 1,638 US counties using NPPES provider registry data, HRSA shortage designations, and demographic data on disability prevalence and school-age autism diagnosis rates. Every county is ranked by acquisition opportunity, fragmentation, and demand intensity.
Delivered as a scored PDF report and a fully ranked Excel dataset — with named independent provider targets ready for outreach.
| # | MSA / Market | State | Acq. Score | Fragmentation | Demand | Mkt Quality | HPSA | Solo Ratio |
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The CDC's latest autism prevalence estimate is 1 in 36 children — up from 1 in 44 just two years earlier. Rising diagnosis rates driven by improved screening protocols create a structurally expanding demand base that is independent of economic cycles, insurance policy, or demographic trends.
In high-demand markets, families wait 12 to 18 months for Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) therapy slots. This supply-demand gap is structural, not cyclical — there are not enough trained providers to meet the diagnosed population. PE-backed platforms can capture this unmet demand while building durable referral relationships with diagnosing physicians and school systems.
IDD and autism services are where behavioral health was in 2014 — fragmented, under-invested, and not yet on the radar of most large PE funds. The platforms that enter now will define the consolidation landscape and command premium multiples at exit. AcuiteIQ identifies the specific markets and providers to target before that window closes.
Based on our February 2026 scoring, top-ranked markets include Minneapolis-St. Paul MN, Portland-Vancouver OR, Seattle-Tacoma WA, Denver CO, and Raleigh-Cary NC — characterized by high autism diagnosis rates relative to provider supply, strong commercial payor mix, and limited PE platform presence. Full rankings across 1,638 counties are in the complete report.
The report covers the full spectrum of IDD and autism services including Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) therapy, residential and group home services for IDD adults and children, day programs, supported employment services, and outpatient behavioral intervention. Providers are sourced from the NPPES national provider registry using IDD and autism-specific taxonomy codes, supplemented by HRSA shortage area data and state Medicaid waiver program enrollment.
Most IDD and autism services are funded through state Medicaid Home and Community Based Services (HCBS) waivers — which provide relatively stable, state-administered reimbursement that is distinct from standard Medicaid fee-for-service. Waiver-funded providers have more predictable revenue than standard Medicaid providers, though they remain subject to state budget cycles. AcuiteIQ's market scoring incorporates state Medicaid waiver enrollment data as a proxy for funding stability and service demand depth.
BH (SUD/mental health) and IDD/Autism have different demand drivers, reimbursement structures, and consolidation timelines. BH demand is episodic — driven by acute mental health crisis and substance use treatment needs. IDD/Autism demand is chronic and lifecycle-long — a diagnosed child becomes a diagnosed adult, often requiring services for decades. This creates more predictable, recurring revenue streams and stronger patient retention economics. PE consolidation in IDD/Autism is 5–7 years behind BH, meaning the current fragmentation premium is larger.
Federal ABA coverage mandates have expanded significantly — most commercial insurers are now required to cover ABA therapy, and Medicaid HCBS waiver programs are politically well-supported. The direction of policy has been toward expansion, not contraction, driven by bipartisan support for disability services funding. That said, state Medicaid budgets are subject to fiscal pressure, and reimbursement rates vary significantly by state. AcuiteIQ's state-level scoring incorporates reimbursement stability signals to help buyers identify the most insulated markets.
186,721 providers scored. 1,638 counties ranked. Early-cycle fragmentation mapped. One purchase, instant delivery.